Meyer: Trump has momentum heading into first debate with Harris

After the initial wave of optimism among Democrats following Joe Biden’s withdrawal and Kamala Harris’ subsequent entry into the presidential race, the pendulum seems to have swung back in the other direction. Recent polling suggests that Donald Trump has regained the momentum and this is still very much his election to lose.

Renowned pollster Nate Silver now gives Trump a 64% chance of defeating Kamala Harris, a new high. Silver’s model also has Trump winning every battleground state, which would give him an even larger electoral college victory than the one he had in 2016 over Hillary Clinton.

Trump received more good news over the weekend by way of a NYT/Siena College poll that had him ahead nationally by 1 point. Looking under the hood, the crosstabs of that poll also spell bad news for the Harris campaign. More voters find Harris to be “too liberal or progressive” than voters who find Trump “too conservative.” It also gave Trump a 46% favorability rating, which is higher than either of his two previous runs for president. Harris is also struggling amongst white male voters, while Trump is benefiting from unusually high support amongst black men and Latinos.

While the Real Clear Politics polling average still has Harris up by 1.2% nationally, it’s important to note that she is still running well behind her Democrat predecessors, despite endlessly positive media coverage and refusal to hold press conferences or talk to the press. At this same time in the election cycle, Hillary Clinton was leading Trump by 2.7% and Biden was ahead by 7.5%. Trump defeated Clinton and Biden won narrowly by a handful of votes in multiple battleground states.

Can Kamala Harris win on vibes alone?

Democrats have tried to artificially manufacture momentum and an aura of good feelings around the Harris campaign with words like “joy,” but their candidate has been notoriously vacuous. Vice President Harris, evidently afraid to run on her record, has made a concerted effort to not talk to the media. It took her over a month to finally do a sit-down interview, and even then she had to tag team it with her running mate Tim Walz.

Harris has seldom gone into detail about policy and what she would actually do as President. She has been running for president for 50 days and only just now put an “issues” page on her campaign website, many of which are just invectives against Donald Trump.

The few ideas she has gone into any detail about, such as removing taxes on tips for service workers and a child tax credit, were essentially copied from Trump’s campaign. Her campaign will require more substance if she is going to blunt Donald Trump’s momentum.

When it comes to the issues, Trump has a decisive advantage over Harris and that is something that will be key for him to hammer home in Tuesday’s debut. Harris often gets flustered and talks in circles when she is forced to discuss policy at length, so it will be essential for Trump to remain disciplined and stay on message. If he can harness the same level of tact he had in his debate with Biden back in June, he should have a good night.

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